The space industry now launches 270 rockets annually on average, more than triple the rate of a decade ago. Prices have dropped, schedules tightened, and demand risen sharply. Satellite operators remain alarmed despite the increase.
“The industry is in a state of alarm,” said Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space, who speaks with satellite companies daily. There is a growing crunch in launch availability.
Examples accumulate. Telesat, a Canadian satellite operator, received requests from other companies to share some of its 11 booked Falcon 9 launches. It declined. Amazon’s low-Earth orbit constellation slowed satellite production because too few reserved launches were available. During an earnings call, officials from AST SpaceMobile said launch availability was now the pacing item for deploying its constellation.
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The Commercial Space Federation expects demand for thousands of satellite launches each year within a decade. Analysys Mason projects 37,000 satellites will require launches between 2023 and 2033. The discussion has moved from how many launch providers the market can sustain to which ones can expand quickly enough.
The situation will worsen soon.
SpaceX’s shift creates a gap
SpaceX drove the surge in launch rates. The company flew the Falcon 9 rocket 165 times last year, and it will probably fly about 20 fewer missions this year. SpaceX has begun adjusting ground systems to reflect these reductions. Gwynne Shotwell, the company’s president, has previously said the operational lifetime of the Falcon 9 may end in 2030 or 2032. However, more recently, commercial satellite customers have been running into difficulties when trying to purchase a launch after 2028. One source said SpaceX has told the U.S. government that it intends to end commercial launches after 2028 but will continue flying the Falcon 9 rocket for a limited number of federally contracted missions after that.
The company is now reducing Falcon 9 operations to focus on Starship, a larger rocket designed for its Starlink satellites and orbital data centers. Financial records show Starlink contributed $4.3 billion of SpaceX’s $7.8 billion revenue in the second quarter of 2026—over half. Commercial launches made up less than 12% of total revenue. The Starship rocket’s PEZ satellite dispenser, optimized for Starlink, is an indication of the company’s priorities.
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New rockets face familiar challenges
A group of medium-lift vehicles is in development, but none are ready to fill the gap. Stoke Space’s Nova rocket, targeting 7 tons to low-Earth orbit, may launch in early 2027 if testing proceeds smoothly. Rocket Lab’s Neutron, capable of 13 tons reusable, could debut the same year, though its schedule has repeatedly slipped. Relativity Space’s Terran R, with a 23.5-ton reusable capacity, might fly within 12 months, though delays are probable. Firefly and Northrop Grumman’s Eclipse, aiming for 16 tons, is the least certain.
Even if all four succeed, scaling production will require years. “I think 2028 is when the problem becomes severe,” said Devon Papandrew, Stoke’s vice president of business development. “New entrants won’t provide an immediate solution.”
The U.S. government could step in—perhaps by urging SpaceX to keep Falcon 9 operational or even nationalizing the rocket. SpaceX’s engineers, who maintain Falcon 9, would likely oppose such moves. Elon Musk, a major Republican donor, would resist any forced sale. Weakening SpaceX could also undermine America’s position in the space race with China.
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Scott Pace, director of George Washington University’s Space Policy Institute, said any government action would need to serve both parties. “It would have to be mutually beneficial,” he said. Other options include expanding spaceports or forming launch agreements with allies like Japan, but none address the core issue: demand exceeds supply, and new rockets won’t arrive quickly enough.
“The outcome will involve a gradual introduction of new vehicles and a slow ramp-up from existing providers,” Henry said. “By the 2030s, we might see some balance. But it won’t happen fast.”
Satellite operators find themselves in a difficult position—watching rockets launch but unable to secure a spot.